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It doesn't take a genius to answer "How will history remember the Russian invasion of Ukraine?" Quite frankly, most of us could write an accurate statement for history right now with just the limited knowledge we have:
Putin has already told us he wishes to put the Soviet Union back together again. Crimea was a start Ukraine is now in play. And, Putin has Europe in a vice like, tight energy hold. Putin's next invasion will be the Baltic states are better prepared. If not WWIII will happen. Russia respects strength. Quite frankly, only strength. Sanctions are a slap on the wrist. Strength has the quality of a "knock out" blow. Putin's Russia is a third world country. Europe's GDP is 10 to 12 times that of Russia.
Putin sees the U.S.A. with weak leadership and a country that's tired of getting involved in Europe over and over, again and again; WWI, WWII, the Cold War, NATO, etc. And he sees Europe as divided. Totally dependent on Russia's gas and oil and driven by selfish economics of Europe's individual countries. NATO's Article V appears strong, but time will tell if it is.
Albert Einstein observed, "The world is a dangerous place to live, not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don't do anything about it."
Ronald Reagan called Russia the "Evil Empire." How do we handle and "Evil Empire" that invades its neighbor? It doesn't take a genius to figure that out. And why Biden and especially the Europeans don't act decisively puzzles me.
As a start, make us, the USA, energy independent again; ween the European's energy needs away from Russia and export energy from the USA to Europe. Isolate Russia with financial, political and commercial blockades. In essence, cut them off from the world. China, and even Iran, have their hands full and may pay a bit of support to Putin, but just a bit.
Now let's look at the facts:
70 percent of Russia's exports are from energy and mining
Russia is vulnerable if exports are cut off or even diminished
When Biden became president oil was $48 per barrel; today, as of Feb. 24, 2022, it is $98 per barrel
Biden stopped the XL pipeline which could move 800,000 barrels of oil per day
The USA imports 500,000 barrels of oil per day from Russia
Russian profits from just the difference in price is $25 million per day
Thus Russia's invasion of Ukraine could be considered subsidized by the USA
Oil and gas are 39 percent of Russia's budget. Cut that off and, unlike most sanctions, that will really hurt and hurt immediately.
Sanctions may be fine, but cutting off Russia from its profitable exports is much better, much faster and with immediate punishment.
I could say with a substantial bit of credibility that Biden and his administration has caused Russia's invasion of the Ukraine due to energy policies and leadership weakness.
I will also forecast the Baltic States and Poland are next. And, I will forecast that NATO will stumble and Russia will prevail. To me it appears the Soviet Union will rise from the ashes just like a Phoenix, whether we like it or not.
They may be the Evil Empire, but so far, they are acting more like a fox.
Ronald J. Price
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