In political elections, money is the main reason for the success of candidates.

The more you get, the better your chances for winning — and if you’re an incumbent with a big financial lead over your opponent, you’ve got a better than 98% chance of getting reelected.

Political action committees, the driving force that funds congressional campaigns, are much more likely to give money to incumbents.

In the two congressional races on the Nov. 5 ballot in the Mahoning Valley, there is evidence.

Based on what we’ve seen so far, the incumbents — Republican Dave Joyce in the 14th Congressional District, which includes Trumbull County, and Republican Michael Rulli, who has spent the past month as the representative for the 6th District, which includes Mahoning and Columbiana counties — have clear financial advantages over their challengers.

In the 14th District, Joyce of Bainbridge, who is seeking his seventh two-year term, had $2.6 million in his campaign fund as of June 30.

For this campaign since Jan. 1, 2023, Joyce raised $1.9 million and spent $1.2 million as of June 30. The large fund balance is because of money carried over from previous campaigns.

Of the money Joyce has raised for this campaign, $1.2 million came from PACs.

In the second quarter, between April 1 and June 30, Joyce raised $359,572 with $254,660 from PACs.

Brian Bob Kenderes, his Democratic opponent, hasn’t filed a report — and has significantly more worries than his congressional run. He was found guilty June 25 of a fifth-degree felony count of filing a false voter registration and was sentenced Thursday to 30 days in jail. His sentence begins Nov. 9, four days after the election, assuming he remains the candidate.

Rulli’s situation is much different than Joyce’s.

Rulli of Salem ran for Congress for the first time in a June 11 special election for a vacant seat.

While he was heavily favored to win, Rulli didn’t have the luxury of incumbency.

But he does now — and PACs quickly recognized that.

PACs lined up to give Rulli money after his election victory.

Rulli collected $40,500 from PACs just between June 12 and July 1.

Between May 23 and July 1, referred to as the postspecial election filing period by the Federal Election Commission, Rulli raised $70,676 with $44,107 coming after the June 11 special election, according to his latest report. That means 62.4% of the money Rulli raised in the postspecial period arrived after the June 11 election.

Of the $705,069 Rulli raised for his campaign, which began in December, $198,925 came from PACs, $453,924 from individual donors, $30,400 from a loan he gave, $21,760 from an affiliated PAC, and $60 from refunds.

With Rulli running in the Nov. 5 election — again against Democrat Michael L. Kripchak of Youngstown, who Rulli beat by 9.7% in the special election — expect the incumbent to see much more PAC money. It already began the day after his win so it should come as no surprise it will continue.

After expenses, Rulli had $60,243 in his campaign fund as of July 1. That’s a very low number, but not unexpected after he spent much of his money to win the March 19 Republican primary.

Rulli’s fund is technically in a deficit because he has $52,450 in debt and his campaign owes him the $30,400 loan he gave on Dec. 15.

But that’s not unusual for newly elected members of Congress.

Kripchak, who did a lot better than most people expected in the special election, is in an actual deficit and there’s nothing technical about it.

Kripchak’s campaign spent more than it raised and showed a $3,811 deficit as of July 1.

Kripchak raised $36,656 and spent $40,467 for his campaign as of July 1.

There’s nothing improper about showing a deficit, according to the FEC, with a spokeswoman telling me that candidate reports are expected to reflect the reality of how much is raised and spent, and accuracy is paramount.

Also, Kripchak’s deficit is small.

After his respectable showing in the special election, Kripchak is likely to collect more money as he campaigns for the Nov. 5 election.

David Skolnick is a political writer for the Youngstown Vindicator and Warren Tribune-Chronicle, sister Ogden newspapers with the Columbiana Country newspapers. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @dskolnick.Contact David Skolnick by email at dskolnick@vindy.com. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @dskolnick.