U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, the lone statewide officeholder elected as a Democrat, has a target on his back.

Brown, D-Cleveland, is up for re-election in 2024 in a state that has swung significantly in favor of Republicans in the past decade and particularly since Donald Trump was elected president in 2016.

There is already talk of a number of Republicans lining up to challenge Brown including Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Sen. Matt Dolan.

Lt. Gov. Jon Husted, who said he isn’t running for the Senate, said, “Ohio is becoming a more Republican state and as long as we nominate a good candidate, I think our chances are good” to beat Brown.

Republicans have unsuccessfully tried twice to beat Brown since he was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006 during a strong Democratic wave year that saw him soundly defeat Republican Mike DeWine, two-term incumbent, by 12.34 percent.

Brown’s first re-election challenge in 2012 came from then-Treasurer Josh Mandel. Brown beat Mandel by 6 percent, a 327,022-vote victory.

Like 2024, 2012 was a presidential election year.

In Ohio, incumbent President Barack Obama, a Democrat, beat Republican Mitt Romney in Ohio by 2.98 percent, a 166,272-vote victory.

While Brown benefited from having Obama on the ballot, he actually outperformed him.

Brown did exceptionally well in 2012 in Mahoning and Trumbull, which were reliable Democratic counties for decades.

In Mahoning, he got 66.38 percent of the vote and beat Mandel by 42,702 votes in the county.

Brown received 62.61 percent of the Trumbull County vote and defeated Mandel by 30,320 votes.

So Brown came out of the two counties with a 73,022-vote lead. That made up an astounding 22.33 percent of Brown’s overall statewide 327,022-vote win.

In 2018, Mandel was going to again challenge Brown for the Democrat’s Senate seat, but withdrew saying it was because of medical issues his then-wife was facing.

Instead, Jim Renacci, a U.S. House member, faced Brown in what looked to be a noncompetitive race.

Brown won by 6.84 percent, a 301,960-vote win. That it was that close was a surprise, even though Ohio is a red state because Renacci wasn’t seen as a dangerous challenger.

Brown still did well in Mahoning and Trumbull even though the two were becoming less blue.

Brown received 60.43 percent of the vote in Mahoning, beating Renacci by 18,940 votes. He got 57.9 percent of the Trumbull vote, winning by 11,899. It was a nonpresidential year so the total votes were much less than in 2012.

Brown’s victories in Mahoning and Trumbull were smaller than in 2012 and the 30,839-vote wins in those two counties accounted for 10.2 percent of his total 301,960-vote statewide margin of victory. The 10.2 percent total was less than half of Brown’s amount from Mahoning and Trumbull six years earlier.

With more Republican candidates either winning or being considerably more competitive in Mahoning and Trumbull in the past few elections, Brown won’t be able to count on big wins in those two counties when he runs again.

That will make a Brown win much more difficult, especially with national Republicans focusing on Ohio in an effort to gain control of the Senate. National Democrats also will focus resources on helping Brown win another term.

During Democrat Tim Ryan’s unsuccessful Senate campaign, part of his strategy was to take a few moves out of Brown’s playbook. He ran as a populist who pointed to his record on trade and manufacturing.

Ryan didn’t have Brown’s name recognition and the rest of the Democratic statewide ticket was weak.

Ryan raised a record $57.58 million in contributions, significantly more than Republican J.D. Vance, who raised $15.6 million for his campaign. But Vance, who benefited from outside spending, won by 6.1 percent of the vote.

Ryan, who has represented the Mahoning Valley in the U.S. House for two decades, lost both Mahoning and Trumbull. He needed to win big in those two counties to have a fighting chance.

Instead, he lost Mahoning County by 3.46 percent. It was even worse for him in Trumbull, where he lost by 7.1 percent.

It’s another reason why Brown can’t count on the Valley in 2024.

Skolnick covers politics for The Vindicator and the Tribune Chronicle, sister newspapers of the Columbiana County Newspapers.

dskolnick@vindy.com